With the Union Budget in July, experts analyse what the month holds for the market. Ajay Srivastava, CEO, Dimensions Consulting Pvt. Ltd. is overweight on the power and engineering sector. He feels these two sectors will gain the most from the Budget coming through.
Srivastava believes PSU banks are overpriced with incorrect disclosures. He also advises investors to hold oil and gas stocks in an interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee.
Besides, the current valuations are overstretched but substantial correction is yet to be witnessed despite the sectoral falls, says Srivastava adding such correction can only be seen when liquidity starts to dry up or macro concerns overtake markets. However, he says there is no trigger for that in our under-invested domestic market.
Also read: Temper your expectations for this Budget: Citi's Vaish
Below is the verbatim transcript of the interview:
Q: How are you feeling going into his Budget, bullish or conservative?
A: You have to be focused on few sectors that will gain whether the Budget comes through in whichever manner and I think those sectors are related to the major parts of economy. We believe that the power sector is going to gain a lot, the engineering sector is going to gain a lot. I am not too sure about whether the consumer, consumer durable space has already got the share of the good news in terms of excise duty extension but I don't think that is where the money is going to be made. The money is going to be made in power and engineering sector because they will get some amount of benefits in the Budget through the Budget exercise and through the exercise of pass through costing of coal prices etc. So I think if you really position for the Budget, these two sectors in my view would gain the most from any Budget which comes through. I don't think government has too much money to give away at this point of time but these two sectors will get the lions share of whatever largest is extended in the Budget.
Q: So if you had to create a portfolio going into the Budget of these two sectors, power and engineering, which four stocks would you choose?
A: Indiabulls Power is one of them, it will gain and why are we picking up those stocks is also relative to their book value, relative to the valuation. So in power we have said very clearly that the two stocks that we think will do well is going to be Reliance Infrastructure in engineering sector, Indiabulls Power, we have a big position in terms of the power sector. L&T of course is on everybody's books at this point and there are few smaller engineering companies in the power sector in the transmission lines. That is roughly the portfolio on which you put a lot of weightage in terms of the Budget coming through.
Q: Do you see the possibility of a correction led by any of these factors like monsoon or Iraq or inflation over the next few months or do you see the market consolidating and strengthening post the Budget?
A: Fact of life is our valuations have stretched far beyond reasonable expectation of earning growth in the next 12-24 months. The fact is that the liquidity that is coming in from abroad is what is guiding this rally. So unless something major happens, say Iraq goes all over the place and the liquidity moves to safety, that will be one of the major factors. I am not too sure at this point of time, a domestic factor will trigger a big correction in the market for two reasons. One is abundant international liquidity, number two is underinvested Indian domestic investors.
You already see in the big chunk which is happening in the last few days people trying to catch the rally by buying C grade stocks, C grade not in quality sense necessarily but much smaller stocks and they are trying to catch the rally. So we have a very under invested domestic market, abundant liquidity flows which is what is cushioning the corrections and keeping shorts at bay. So meaningful correction can only happen if the liquidity strap starts to dry up or there is an international event that says we reverse the flows of flight to safety of capital. That is the only event, which will trigger a major correction.
Otherwise what you have seen very interestingly that the market is correcting sector wise, you will see the oil and gas corrected in the last two days and policy announcement. Some value buying will come there. You saw IT correcting in the last month and half back, IT valuations came back. You saw pharma correcting, pharma has come back. So it is also giving opportunity that without having a global correction in the market, sector corrections are giving good places for people to enter and get into stocks which they would not normally have gone to given the valuations.
Q: How are you approaching this market now? Are you positioning yourself for the medium-term, are you buying every dip, what has been your portfolio approach?
A: We have been booking profits very regularly, sometimes in a bad manner because the price went up but that is okay. At this point of time, we have almost zero holdings in banking stocks. In fact, 15500 we went short in the Bank Nifty. We believe that the stock prices of the PSU banks are over priced. We believe the disclosures were not correctly done in the March 31 financial in terms of the sale of assets to the ARCs and this ARC bomb is going to haunt the banks in next 24-36 months when people actually realized what exactly happened in March 31 balance sheet.
Optically, it looks much better but the reality underlying is that as the sole inflated prices for a fixed fee commission to be paid to the ARCs. The beauty is, no disclosure in the financials, say how much asset I have sold, what are the book value, what are the valuations. So one sector we don't have a holding today is the banking sector. That sector is going to be weak in the next couple of months. Whether the monsoon comes in, has a bad match, you will have farm loan waivers, payment will get defeated. You will have a need to restructure the loans again if the consumer demand continues to be bad what it is already in the market. So banks are a bit overpriced and our holding is almost next to nothing unless there is significant correction. Power industry, engineering sector is where we are overweight at this point of time. Pharma remains steady weight, IT we have only one stock, nothing much.
Q: What about oil and gas?
A: Oil and gas we have maintained the holding we didn't the correction we have not sold off the holdings. We continue to be overweight on that and if there is significant correction today we will add to the holdings. The fact is whether you like it or not in next 12-18 months prices will be put to market and that will give us major fill up to market. Short-term policy measures delays can happen but that also gives an opportunity that is what I am saying; market is giving you entry points at any point of time you buy oil and gas today you will make 20-25 percent return at the end of a year.
Q: What do you sense from Retail and HNI right now, it is fair to say that they have missed a lot of this year party are they in a scramble to get in or do you still see reluctance because the numbers are not suggesting that they are in still getting in an major way?
A: The two part of the market, what we are seeing from our investors is from one part of the market is actually scrambling to get in and saying wake and we write the next big wave if it happens they have kind of left out. Second one is saying that there is a fundamental disconnect with their reality of economic life in India versus what the market is showing and that market remains sceptical. The big chunk is the people are not willing to commit long term money to any instrument today on equity market, they don't believe that the equity market is for real in terms of valuation. So, a major chunk of money which went to insurance schemes so the equity funded insurance schemes has almost dwindle it is almost negative.
We have seen consistently in the last three to four months withdrawal, hardly anybody is putting money in long term instrument. So there is a short term trader who wants to get on to the bandwagon if he can through whichever stocks that he can see but there is a 65 percent chunk of people who believe that there is a serious disconnect and the only reason the markets are up is because the foreigners are buying out of zero cost money.
In India you can actually get a return, let's take a look at our businesses, our cash discount rates today are running at three percent a month if a pare supplier below his time is three percent a month, 36 percent on a simple basis yield now why would I want to put my money in the equity market? if I am getting zero percent money in England sure I would want to put money in equity but if I am getting 24 percent yield on my own businesses I don't see a reason to go to equity market and that is where the disconnect is, cost of capital and the economic reality of India versus the stock market exuberance.
Q: What is the economic reality from the small businessmen that you speak to smaller and medium enterprises that you speak to? Have things started turning around do you see anything improving over the last couple of months or has it been a combination of sentiment and stock market gains which have not yet filtered down to things like real estate commercial real estate where people start believing that things are turning around really?
A: Whatever we have seen is mostly anecdotal, we haven't got enough data to compile but all the companies we are speaking to, are saying that June is perhaps one of the worst month they have seen in terms of consumer buying they have seen. Whether it is a retail space, it is a commercial space, a real estate, June has been an absolutely disastrous month for all them. I don't think unlike previous time, stock market euphoria came on to the retail market as you rightly said, it hasn't this time.
The real estate companies have not moved at least in North, south is a little lot better but north has been a very grim situation on the demand side and you will see the results when they come out April to June, it will be a pretty bad set of numbers for April to June so reality is that things are getting worst on the ground June has been a bad month and government is not hiding from it, government is acknowledging it that June is not going to be a good month and you can already see that the discounts in the market have gone up, real estate people are discounting heavily, as I said when you are getting two to three percent cash discount, it tells you a desperate nature of the market.
Q: Do you disagree that this could be the start of a multiyear cycle like 2003/2007 or do you agree with that hypothesis that a lot of people seem to subscribe to?
A: What I say is that the current, if you start from the cycle on today's valuation I don't see too much upside unless in terms of significant quantum booming market unless the global funds remain and rates become as benign as zero and one percent. If that hypothesis means true and that is true for all global markets now, everybody is doing well, it is not that we are the only one. We may have done better this year but everybody is doing well because the opportunity cost of money is zero or one or two percent. Till that remains we are in a good zone of equities. If that hypothesis turns around we are in a severely overvalued market even from today's perspective factoring in all the policy changes and all the benefits we are going to get in the next 12 to 24 months.