ICICIdirect.com has come out with its positional recommendations on US$INR. The pair is likely to trade with positive bias for target of 63 with support seen at 60-60.5, says the report.
Recent strengthening of US dollar and cautious stance taken by FIIs over emerging market investments has forced EM currencies to weaken in September. After August month's consolidation, US$INR seemed to have formed base near 60 levels and has witnessed noticeable short covering bounce in the last couple of weeks. Oct series options build up also suggest that pair is likely find support near 60.0-60.5 levels. Also key 50, 100 & 200 DMAs are placed in the range of 60.35-61. In the month of September, we also observed some spurt in 1M & 3M NDF premiums over INR spot which indicates towards short term weakness in INR. Hence, we recommend going long on US$INR on declines.
Sell JPYINR October future in the range of 58.50-58.80, Target 1: 57.25, Target 2: 55.00. Stop loss: 59.8
Rationale: In the month of September, dollar index moved up significantly to 86.7 levels indicating strengthening of US Dollar. As a result we observed depreciating moves among almost all developed countries' currencies including Japanese Yen, where US$JPY broke its immediate hurdle of 104-105.5 and headed towards August 2008 highs of 111. This has attracted fresh shorts in JPYINR pushing it towards 15 month low of 55.6. US$JPY may see some breather near historical hurdle of 111-112.5. Though, until US$ remain in strength, we believe JPYINR is likely to trade under pressure.
Positional Recommendations -
Buy US$INR: Long US$INR October future in the range of 60.80-61.10. Target 1: 62.30, Target 2: 63.15, Stop loss: 59.90
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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