Watch the interview of Mayuresh Joshi of Angel Broking to answer all your stock queries and Kalpesh Ashar of Full Circle Financial Planners & Advisors is answer our few personal finance queries.
Watch the interview of Mayuresh Joshi of Angel Broking to answer all your stock queries and Kalpesh Ashar of Full Circle Financial Planners & Advisors is answer our few personal finance queries.
Below is the verbatim transcript of Mayuresh Joshi's interview with CNBC-TV18:
Reliance Infra
If you look at the numbers that Reliance Infra has been posting across its different segments that it basically operate out on I think the EPC segment has been a big drag on consolidate earnings. Order book probably stands at Rs 5,700 crore odd and probability of that order book increasing meaningfully seems a little bleak at least over the next 1-2 quarters. At their cement division the capacity expansion that the company is looking at from 5.8 mtp to at round 10mtp will the commissioning happening in Maharashtra I think the utilisation levels are still very low. If one probably assumes that the cement demand probably will grow at the much faster pace, Reliance Infra cement business can start contributing but even that will take time because they will be reporting losses so far. When it probably comes to their roads part, few of their roads have been operational. Again I think not meaningful in terms of EBITDA addition probably from the road segment itself. So what has stood out is that their electricity business was probably inline. All the other segments should probably work in tandem as well. So in our opinion even the current acquisition that Reliance Infra is probably gone out with, the interest cost on consolidated basis is still a little bit too high for Reliance Infra. I do not think that the stock might give meaningful returns from a year perspective. So from year perspective or an 18 months perspective Larsen & Toubro (L&T) could become one of our barometers for playing the India infra story. Though L&T has also disappointed in terms of numbers but once the capex cycle revives over the next couple of quarters, L&T will be a key beneficiary. So our take is that L&T probably looks like a much better profit after tax (PAT) over the next 12-18 months. We remain optimistic on L&T on declines.
Sun Pharma
After the merger with Ranbaxy probably all the synergy's will perk in favour of Sun Pharma. So to put a few statistic in place clearly in terms of their footprints they will get spread across 65 countries; the kind of the ANDA applications that the entire entity might have is closed to 600 odd applications and clearly it will fall in the top 5 generic firm's in the world. The domestic formulations business or domestic business for Sun Pharma will now contribute around 9.5 percent that will become the largest entity operating out of the Indian markets followed only EBIT at around 6.5 percent. All the parameters in terms of the numbers are working in favour of Sun Pharma and even if you look at valuations the EBITDA margins expected from consolidated entities at around 31.3 percent is still much higher than its peer group comparison. Even if I look at their return on equities (ROE's), the ROEs are expected to decompress on a consolidated basis to around 27.5 percent odd. Even that is better than a lot of the peers within the pharma space in India. So clearly the kind of turnaround that Sun Pharma has already done with a lot of its earlier acquisitions URL and DUSA that will hold it in good stared. Again the kind of niche product launches and the niche product offering that it is got via all its entities even that will probably hold the kind of earnings momentum that one probably expects from Sun Pharma to deliver. The expectations are high but again we remain very optimistic on Sum Pharma. We expect the topline to probably go around 25 percent odd over the next couple of years and the earnings per share (EPS) should show significant amount of traction as well. So hold on to the stock and remain extremely optimistic on the stock target of Rs 1,175 over the next 12months.
Punjab National Bank
The asset quality issues are haunting a lot of public sector undertaking (PSU) banks' balance sheets and Punjab National Bank is not an exception if I look at the slippages in the quarter gone by at around Rs 5,500 crore odd, they were much higher than what the street was probably expecting. What that probably resulted into is the net interest income grew at a much tepid pace and the net interest margins (NIMs) just got compressed on both counts probably the credit growth was not up to the mark which was the generate cite that the banking industry is going through and the only part that came as a respite was that there was some amount of trading gains that probably came through and the unrealised portion of the M2M gains helped the non-interest component. All the other parameters remain healthy for PNB, the CASA ratio remains strong at 39.4 percent, they successfully managed to get down their cost income ratios and though the management commentary indicating that the next two quarters will be little bit tough when it comes to asset quality and asset restructuring considering the outstanding restructured book as well which has major component of the state electricity boards contributing to the downfall but a general recovery in the infrastructure sector, steel sector where majority part of their lending is and the structural rate cuts by the RBI should hold the stock in good stead. The stock might react or correct if the results are a bit worse or off. So hold on to the stock. Our target price remains at Rs 201 over the next 12-18 months.
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