With polling in Mumbai on Thursday 24th April, NSE will be closed on Thursday and hence the expiry for April F&O contract has been preponed to Wednesday. The focus this week would be on F&O expiry, earnings and FII inflows. Needless to add, the markets track F&O dynamics rather than fundamentals during the expiry week.
The key earnings are: Cairn India, Ultratech Cement on Wednesday; ACC, Ambuja Cements on Thursday; Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IDFC, Maruti Suzuki on Friday.
The FII flows will be monitored as we witnessed. As per the available data on SEBI website, FIIs were net sellers, although miniscule $25.71 million, for two consecutive days Tuesday and Wednesday trading days. If we include Friday 11th April trading day, then FIIs were net sellers in cash market for 3 consecutive sessions, 11th, 15th and 16th April, a trend witnessed after a long gap.
Weekly wrap: Nifty ends flat, eyes 6800; IT cos kick off earnings season
I believe incase the hope built into the current rally fructifies then the FII inflows would continue at least till budget session in July in hope of big ticket reforms in budgetary announcements.
Contrary to the net outflows faced by Emerging Markets, India for past year and a half has been able to attract FII money. Fund flows so far this year as regards to Emerging Markets are still negative, with bond funds shedding $9.33 billion and equity funds shedding $25.55 billion year to date. This followed a tough 2013, which saw $14.1 billion exit emerging market equity funds, while $14.04 billion said good-bye to the segment's bond funds; the same year India attracted some net $20 billion inflows into cash markets.
To note is that the Fund Managers are lately turning less negative on Emerging Markets, with a net 13 percent taking underweight positions on the segment, down from 31 percent figure in March, according to the latest Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Fund Manager survey.
Earnings would be in focus in US with nearly one-third of S&P 500 names set to post results this week. As regards to macro data, the main data would be the latest manufacturing sector purchasing managers' indices (PMI) due out in the Eurozone and China, on Wednesday.
(This article is written by Aviral Gupta, Investment Strategist, Mynte Advisors)
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