CRISIL raises Supreme Industries` fair value to Rs 600

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 06 Agustus 2014 | 18.00

CRISIL Research has come out with its report on Supreme Industries. The research firm has lowered its cost of equity to the company and accordingly, the fair value is raised to Rs 600 from Rs 471 per share.

CRISIL Research's report on Supreme Industries

The Supreme Industries' (Supreme's) Q4FY14 (June-ending) consolidated results were in line with CRISIL Research's expectations. Revenues increased 21% y-o-y to Rs 12.8 bn. Core business revenues grew 21% y-o-y to Rs 12.6 bn led by 9% growth in sales volumes. Realisation growth of 12% was due to higher raw material prices. The company reported real estate sales of Rs 217 mn vs Rs 160 mn in Q4FY13. Core business EBITDA margin declined 153 bps y-o-y to 16.6% as Q4FY13 margin was higher due to inventory gains. Adjusted PAT grew 9.6% y-o-y to Rs 1.2 bn. Supreme's volume growth was subdued at ~2% in FY14 due to unseasonal rains and weak demand. However, we expect demand across most of its products to bounce back in FY15. We maintain the fundamental grade of 4/5.

Pipes sales rose on pent-up demand; expect 16% CAGR over FY14-16
The plastic piping segment's revenues grew ~29% y-o-y to Rs 6.9 bn and contributed 59% to core business sales. Sales volumes, up 18% y-o-y, were the highest ever quarterly volumes in this segment. After a muted performance in Q3FY14 due to unseasonal rains across the company's key geographies, sales bounced back in Q4FY14 due to pent-up demand from the previous quarter. The CPVC segment's sales volumes grew 18% y-o-y. We expect sales in this segment to remain healthy driven by demand from the agriculture and real estate sectors. Further, the company's new facility in Kharagpur (to be commissioned in FY16) will give it access to new markets and support sales growth. We forecast revenue CAGR of 16% over FY14-16 driven mainly by volume growth.

Fair value increased to Rs 600
We have broadly maintained our earnings estimates for FY15-16 but have revised our estimates for FY17-24 on an improved earnings outlook. Also, we have lowered our cost of equity. Accordingly, the fair value is raised to Rs 600 from Rs 471 per share.

Disclaimer: This report (Report) has been commissioned by the Company/Investor/Exchange and prepared by CRISIL. The report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. Opinions expressed herein are CRISIL's opinions as on the date of this Report.  The Data / Report are subject to change without any prior notice. Nothing in this Report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this Report. This Report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient only. This Report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published or copied in whole or in part especially outside India, for any purpose.

CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. Published under permission from CRISIL"

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