Overall, the survey results suggest that the outlook for the economy in this fiscal year is positive relative to last year. Following are the main highlights of the Survey findings (majority defined as 50% or more of respondents in a single category or combination of categories):-
GDP growth is expected to pick up in FY15 and stand between 5% and 5.5%. The outlook on industrial growth is particularly optimistic for H2 FY15 with a range of 2-4% growth being expected.
Notwithstanding the uneven monsoon this year, inflationary expectations have eased down as half of the Survey sample expects the RBI to comfortably meet its 8% CPI inflation target in FY15.
Majority of the respondents expect the Government to exceed its fiscal deficit target for FY15.
A revival is expected in both investment and consumption spending, which is positive news for the economy.
A rate cut is expected this year and the 10-years GSec yield would be around 8.4%.
A majority still expect NPA ratio to increase this year.
75% of the Survey sample holds the view of Sensex settling above 27,000.
The expectation regarding the movement of the INR is mixed. A majority of the respondents expect it to remain at the existing level of Rs 60-62.
CAD is expected to be between 1.5-2% while respondents are less sanguine on FII inflows which are to be less than $ 35 bn this year.
FOREX Reserves are viewed to be between $ 320 bn and $ 330 bn by March '15.
Speaking on the occasion of the release of CARE Ratings' Survey, Mr. D. R. Dogra, MD & CEO, CARE Ratings said "Expectations and sentiments are critical and have a strong bearing on the business activity in an economy. Today expectations are high based on faith in the new government and the Survey results reinforce the generally positive outlook industry has for the economy this year. This is heartening".
The Survey findings are in line with CARE's own economic forecasts released at the start of the fiscal (Prognosis FY15).
"At a time when there are rising concerns about uneven global growth, the Survey results imply that expectations pertaining to the Indian Economy in FY15 have grown in optimism. Three important takeaways from the Survey findings lie in expectation of a better GDP growth in the range of 5-5.5% in FY15, general outlook for inflation to decline and a modicum of growth in industry and investment this fiscal", added Mr. D. R. Dogra.
Disclaimer: This report is prepared by the Economics Division of Credit Analysis &Research Limited [CARE]. CARE has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis/inferences/views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE (including all divisions) has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.
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