Alfaccurate Advisors remains positive on the Indian market with a 2-3 year view and maintains Sensex target of 46,000 by March 2017.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Kothari said the market does not want policy announcements anymore but has been looking for on-ground execution.
The brokerage firm is positive on sectors like auto and ancillary, private banks, select NBFCs and consumer durables.
Below is the transcript of Rajesh Kothari's interview with CNBC-TV18\\'s Menaka Doshi and Senthil Chengalvarayan.
Menaka: We have got a variety of things to look forward to in terms of where these markets are headed. The first event will be what Janet Yellen says this evening. Do you think it is going to have a big impact if she takes the word patience out of her commentary, a big impact on emerging market inflows specifically to India?
A: I don't think so. I think there is over analysis of each and every word of what US Fed is going to talk about. One thing we need to keep in mind is that while on one hand there can be a possibility of tightening whether it is question of June or September of 25 bps or little higher over a period of 3-4 quarters the Europe is still surplus. Quantitative easing by Europe, quantitative easing by Japan, China is also now going to be easy monetary policy. So, there are lot of offsetting factors. Number two, it cannot be that each good news is a bad news. Actually it is a good news because US economy is doing well. So, now market is treating each bad news as a good news and good news as bad news however we need to come back and focus on fundamentals and that is where the US economy is doing reasonably better compared to what people thought two years back. So, whether it is June, whether it is P capital of patience or P small, I think we are over emphasizing and over doing research on all these words.
Menaka: You don't even expect any sort of volatility in the interim?
A: Volatility may happen but it is going to be very sharp volatility and it can be either way volatility. Volatility means it can be both ways. Suppose the stand is little bit soft then people will again talk about the same things again that now it is going to be postponed by another one quarter, it is more of speculation in nature. However India specific if you look at the currency movement that basically gives you the kind of a flavour of each country whether investor likes it or not and that is why the Indian currency has remained extremely stable compared to many other emerging market economies. Therefore I believe that even if suppose there is a little bit tightening which suppose today night there is an announcement , the currency stability shows that India is going to be overall better positioned compared to many other economies.
Menaka: If that is not the next big trigger for the Indian markets, what is? Do you expect it will be Q4 earnings that will change expectations from these markets either to the upside or the downside because the last quarter was very disappointing or do you expect now more policy announcements from the government to be the next big driver?
A: The next big driver needs to be the on road execution. It has to be now execution driven growth by the government, by the corporates. We do not need now announcements. Policy framework has been already – last 9 months has been spent on the policy framework. Now we need on ground execution.
Senthil: Year to date, that is April 2014 till today you have returned about almost 72 percent. Do you expect in the next 6-8 months to be as easy if I can put it that way?
A: Markets are never easy.
Senthl: Can you get these kind of returns because a lot of these returns are factoring in hope and expectation of policy. Do you see on ground taking off to give you if not these return but any where close to this?
A: Last year Sensex delivered 30 percent return – FY15, from April 1 to March 31 – we are near to that. We are 72 percent up compared to market which is 30 percent . We believe that next 2-3 years is going to be back to the golden period of growth of FY03 to FY08.
In FY03 to FY08 Sensex went up by 5 times, all indices. You look at any BSE indices whether it is capital goods index, PSU bank index, any index the minimum it was up was 3.8 times which was the IT index and maximum was capital goods which was 15 times in 5 years. So, what I am trying to say is that if we are going back to that kind of a golden period in terms of GDP growth which is 7 percent plus, IIP growth which is reasonably healthy growth then we can think that corporate earning growth can be 18-20 percent plus.
Anda sedang membaca artikel tentang
Maintain Sensex target of 46,000 by March 2017: AlfAccurate
Dengan url
https://untukkesehatanda.blogspot.com/2015/03/maintain-sensex-target-of-46000-by.html?m=0
Anda boleh menyebar luaskannya atau mengcopy paste-nya
Maintain Sensex target of 46,000 by March 2017: AlfAccurate
namun jangan lupa untuk meletakkan link
Maintain Sensex target of 46,000 by March 2017: AlfAccurate
sebagai sumbernya
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar